This report examines the combined effect of U.S. tariffs and the electric-vehicle transition on Canada’s automotive manufacturing sector and its workforce from 2026 to 2040, modelling three scenarios that span the range of plausible trade and electrification outcomes. It finds that the sector loses output and jobs under every scenario, but that the scale depends far more on whether Canada keeps preferential access to the U.S. market than on the pace of the EV transition, with the worst case reaching roughly 195,000 jobs lost by 2040. Because those losses are concentrated in a small number of Ontario communities and fall hardest on the internal-combustion workforce, the report frames the trade and electrification outcomes as a question about workers as much as about the broader economy.

This report is part of the TRADE Auto Canada Project. TRADE Auto Canada: Trade, Resilience, and Adaptation to Disruption in Employment in Canada’s Automotive Manufacturing Sector is a research initiative led by the Canadian Skills Training and Employment Coalition (CSTEC) in partnership with the Automotive Policy Research Centre (APRC), funded by the Future Skills Centre (FSC). The project examines the compounded impact of U.S. trade tariffs, shifting EV demand, and evolving trade policy on Canada’s automotive manufacturing sector and its workforce. Through sector and trade exposure analysis, economic and labour market impact modelling, national occupational forecasting, and stakeholder engagement, the project aims to provide policymakers, employers, labour organizations, and workforce development providers with the data and tools needed to support employment stability, workforce transition planning, and long-term sector resilience.