The FOCAL project team published baseline labour market forecasts for Ontario’s FOCAL Automotive Production Industry in Spring 2020.

This report expands the scope of that work by exploring detailed provincial labour market forecasts for scenarios where national motor vehicle production, consisting of light-duty vehicles, buses, and heavy-duty trucks, either increases (upside) or decreases (downside) by 20% from the baseline forecast. Labour market outlooks are contrasted between the baseline and alternative production scenarios, in the process offering valuable insights for industry players, policymakers, and other key stakeholders. Highlights of the report’s outlooks include:

• Employment in Ontario’s FOCAL Automotive Production Industry is projected to range from an estimated 143,450 workers by 2030 in the downside scenario to 176,280 workers in the upside scenario. In the baseline scenario, employment was projected to reach 160,610 workers by 2030. Unsurprisingly, the largest impacts are seen within the vehicle assembly industry group, where employment ranged from 17% above to 18% below the baseline by 2030. Significant employment impacts are also projected for vehicle parts manufacturing, but only for the portion of output that is not exported, as well as for other primary automotive suppliers associated with computers & electronics.