This report examines how U.S. trade tariffs, changing vehicle production, and the transition to electric vehicles are expected to reshape occupational demand across Canada’s automotive manufacturing sector from 2026 to 2040. Building on the project’s industry-level economic scenarios, it forecasts recruitment gaps for nearly 70 occupations by combining projected changes in employment demand with replacement demand from retirements and the supply of new labour market entrants. The findings show that labour market pressures vary substantially across occupations, with some facing persistent shortages while others are expected to experience surpluses under more disruptive trade conditions. Rather than affecting all workers equally, the report demonstrates that the combined effects of trade disruption and electrification will create highly uneven workforce impacts, underscoring the need for targeted workforce planning, reskilling strategies, and occupation-specific policy responses.

This report is part of the TRADE Auto Canada Project. TRADE Auto Canada: Trade, Resilience, and Adaptation to Disruption in Employment in Canada’s Automotive Manufacturing Sector is a research initiative led by the Canadian Skills Training and Employment Coalition (CSTEC) in partnership with the Automotive Policy Research Centre (APRC), funded by the Future Skills Centre (FSC). The project examines the compounded impact of U.S. trade tariffs, shifting EV demand, and evolving trade policy on Canada’s automotive manufacturing sector and its workforce. Through sector and trade exposure analysis, economic and labour market impact modelling, national occupational forecasting, and stakeholder engagement, the project aims to provide policymakers, employers, labour organizations, and workforce development providers with the data and tools needed to support employment stability, workforce transition planning, and long-term sector resilience.